Assembly elections for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), to be held from September 18 to October 1, will test India’s democratic institutions and, especially, the Election Commission of India (ECI), to the fullest extent. This will be the first election for J&K since it lost its statehood and Ladakh was carved out as a separate UT without an Assembly in 2019. After a a three-phase poll in J&K and a single-phase one in Haryana, the counting of votes will be on October 4. Curiously, the ECI has said that elections that are due in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will be announced later. In 2019, Haryana and Maharashtra went to the polls together. Security concerns and festivals have been cited as the reason for holding these elections in batches of two each. Falling within the first year of the 2024 general election, these four Assembly elections, and then the one in Delhi, will be notable for the political signals that will emanate. Of import will be the J&K exercise, as a new elected government can be the first step to a durable political process after J&K’s reorganisation five years ago. The enthusiasm that the electorate showed in the general election and the recurring incidents of violent insurgency are two aspects of the situation in Kashmir. Elections could open the possibility of the emergence of new political actors. An election process that is demonstrably fair and transparent is essential for a healthy democracy, and in Kashmir’s case, no less so.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went in for a changing of the guard in Haryana ahead of the general election to dilute the discontent against the party and its governments at the Centre and the State. The Agnipath short service scheme that was introduced by the Centre is a topic of intense interest in a State where many young people look to the military for a career option. The Congress is hoping to benefit from the double anti-incumbency and a disarray in the non-Jat social coalition that propelled the BJP to the top in 2014. The impact of the Assembly elections will not be limited to the two States/UTs. The general election had loosened the BJP’s grip over the country’s politics and given the Opposition a fresh lease of life. Whether that trend holds or there is a reversal is to be seen. Politics within the BJP, among the National Democratic Alliance partners, between the BJP and the larger Sangh Parivar, and between the BJP and the Opposition, could all be influenced by these elections. The BJP and the Congress both know that the stakes are high, giving this round of elections an added edge.